US HEALTHCARE STOPS OPERATING IN 2025-2030: Raymond Rupert MD. MBA.

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The $1 trillion dollar per year US healthcare system is not sustainable.

As a result, the US healthcare system is projected to STOP operating in 2025-2030.

The reasons for this failure include:

* the change in demographics that will load the system with many older chronically ill patients

* the inability to scale the management of complexity

* the aging healthcare infrastructure

* the growing capital deficits at both state and federal levels

* the high rates of medical inflation

* the inability or unwillingness to tackle escalating costs including pharma costs and

* the loss of skilled human capital.

These troubling trends, in US fiscal situation, in health care affordability, in employer sponsored care, will appear to reach a crisis point between 2025 and 2030.

It is no coincidence that the completion of the retirement of the baby boomers takes place in that same period: the worker to retiree ratio 3.99 now, dropping to 2.67 by 2030, will be exacerbating US fiscal problems. Demographics, however, are not the sole source of the emerging problems.

Public policies lie at the heart of many of the challenges: when it goes into effect in 2018, the excise tax will incentivize employers to reduce the value of health plans to stay under the tax’s threshold; the Affordability Care Act (ACA) includes a host of marginal costs on employers that raise costs on employers and employees alike; relying on Medicaid to expand health coverage burdens overly strapped state budgets; and unrealistic entitlement program payouts threaten the fiscal viability of not only the US entitlement programs, but of the U.S. as a whole.

Source: American Health Policy Institute Sept 2015.